Savannah Chamber

39 24 the European Union, which is not doing well economically. The main export is transportation equipment. Valdosta From peak-to-trough the Valdosta MSA lost 9.1 percent of its jobs to the COVID-19 recession. The heaviest job losses were in government and high-contact service providing industries such as the leisure & hospitality industry. The nation's and the state's job markets took harder hits than Valdosta's job market. In Valdosta, the initial three-month rebound in jobs was strong. Specifically, the Valdosta MSA recovered 52 percent of its job losses, which exceeded the 42 percent rebound posted by the nation. Going forward, however, the recovery from the COVID-19 recession will be relatively slow. In 2021, Valdosta's employment will increase by 0.6 percent, or 300 jobs, which is lower than the 1.5 percent and 0.9 percent growth expected for Georgia and the US, respectively. Health care is likely to be an economic driver. The area's health care industry can grow by expanding its share of the local market. Valdosta's healthcare industry can also prosper by pulling more patients from surrounding areas. Structurally, the Valdosta metropolitan area is extremely dependent on government jobs. The leisure and hospitality industry also accounts for a substantially larger than average share of the area's nonfarm jobs. Retail trade and transportation also make large contributions to the local economy. In contrast, professional and business services, financial activities, and wholesale trade account for relatively low shares of nonfarm employment. In addition, Valdosta is not overly depending on manufacturing jobs, with its share of manufacturing jobs slightly below both the US and Georgia averages. Industrial diversity is relatively low, which makes the overall business environment riskier. High-tech jobs account for only 2.4 percent of the area's total jobs. Valdosta is not overly dependent on international trade. Exports account for 4.0 percent of the area's GDP. The area's top employers are Moody Air Force Base, South Georgia Medical Center, Fresh Beginnings, Valdosta State University, and Wild Adventures. The leading high-wage industries are the federal government and offices of physicians. The leading mid-wage industries are local government, automobile dealers, and building equipment contractors. The leading low-wage industries are government and warehousing/storage. The Valdosta MSA includes Brooks, Echols, Lanier, and Lowndes counties. In 2021, continued growth in consumer spending will ensure that Valdosta benefits from its traditional role as a retail hub for extreme Southwest Georgia. Retail jobs account for a somewhat higher share of economic activity in the Valdosta MSA than in either the state or the nation. Nonetheless, like traditional retailers everywhere, Valdosta's retailers will face more competition from electronic commerce, which will limit retail job growth from increases in consumers' spending. Because Valdosta is a small MSA, the actions for the better, or for the worse, by one major company can determine the area's actual economic performance. In late 2019, CJB Applied Technologies announced an expansion that will create 10 jobs. In mid-2019, Arglass Yamamura announced plans to build its first U.S. glass container factory in Valdosta, which will create 150 manufacturing jobs. In early 2019, Better Way Products announced plans to set up a new fiberglass manufacturing facility in Valdosta, initially creating about 20 jobs, but with plans to ramp up to 86 jobs in three years. In addition, a couple economic development projects were announced in 2018. Metal Benderz decided to relocate its existing manufacturing operations in Marietta to Valdosta, bringing about 50 jobs within 2 years to Lowndes County. Metal Benderz said that Wiregrass Technical College factored favorably into their decision to locate in the Hahira Business Park. The 2021 outlook for hospitality and tourism calls for continuing economic recovery from depressed levels. The recovery of the hospitality industry will accelerate substantially once a COVID-19 vaccine is widely available. Valdosta will continue to leverage its location on I-75 as a convenient place for visitors bound for Orlando or Tampa to make their last overnight stay before arriving at their destination. Valdosta's central location between Atlanta, Jacksonville, and Tallahassee also works to the hospitality industry's advantage. Government jobs account for a high proportion of the Valdosta MSA's nonfarm jobs. That is largely due to the presence of Moody Air Force Base, which is Valdosta's largest employer. The restructuring of the government sector therefore is a potential headwind for Valdosta. The Air Force has talked about retiring the A-10 plane, which is based at Moody Air Force Base, but a recent GAO report suggests that the Air Force has yet to find a cost effective substitute for the various types of missions performed by the A-10. Nonetheless, the potential retirement of the A-10 must be acknowledged as a serious, potential, threat to the local economy.

• Cover