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40 25 In addition to a high dependence on federal military spending, Valdosta is extremely dependent on spending by state and local government. Fiscal austerity due to pandemic's negative impact on revenue collections by state and local governments therefore could be very tough on Valdosta and is a major downside risk for the area's economy. Valdosta is a college town and Valdosta State University therefore is a major driver of the local economy. In FY 2019, Valdosta State University's economic impact was $383 million and 4,241 jobs: 1,453 on-campus jobs and 2,788 off- campus that exist due to university-related spending. The 2019 employment impact (4,241 jobs) is 6 percent higher than in 2014 (4,001 jobs). In 2021, Valdosta State University's excellent reputation will continue to attract many students from outside the region, adding to student spending and to the supply of newly minted college graduates. In addition to generating university-related spending, Valdosta State University raises the area's educational attainment. As educational attainment rises, Valdosta should find it easier to recruit or grow new businesses and industries, especially in its relatively undeveloped technology and high-value added services industries. In the Valdosta MSA, existing single-family home prices have not fully recovered from the Great Recession. As of the second quarter of 2020, home prices were 2 percent below their pre-Great Recession level, but home prices increased by a very strong 7.7 percent between the second quarter of 2019 and the second quarter of 2020. The failure of home prices to fully recover from the ravages of the Great Recession reflects weak demographics and a paucity of high-wage job growth. Depressed home prices restrain consumer spending and entrepreneurial activity, especially people's willingness to spend on home improvements. In the Valdosta MSA, home prices are expected to fully recover before the end of 2020. In 2021, modest home price increases are expected, which will help support higher consumer spending, entrepreneurial activity, and new home construction. The 2021 outlook for homebuilders calls for a modest increase in homebuilding activity, reflecting low mortgage, recent strong increases in the prices of existing homes, and continuing recovery from the COVID-19 recession. Housing- related employment accounts for 8.8 percent of the Valdosta MSA's total employment, which is below the U.S. average of 9.6 percent.