Savannah Chamber

37 in Gainesville. The high economic multipliers associated with these projects spread the benefits of these expansions to people working in other businesses. Recent expansions outside of manufacturing include Tatsumi Intermodal – a logistics/distribution firm, Lowers Risk Group – risk management firm, and ProCare Rx – a healthcare IT firm. The gradual build out of these economic development projects will provide a powerful tailwind to the region's overall economy in 2018-19 and beyond. The medical sector will be an important economic driver. The Northeast Georgia Medical Center ranks among the nation's best hospitals in nine procedures and conditions. In Georgia, only Emory University Hospital and Emory St. Joseph's Hospital ranked higher. Gainesville's medical industry will successfully draw more patients from surrounding rural and metropolitan Atlanta counties, becoming true medical service hub. The growth of the medical sector will make Gainesville even more suitable for retiree-based economic development. Gainesville is a major post-secondary education hub, which generates large direct economic impacts. Each semester, the University of North Georgia, Brenau University, and Lanier Technical College add newly minted talent to the supply of workers that businesses need to expand. The economic impacts of these institutions will continue to expand. Lanier Technical College's new campus will allow the institution to offer new and expanded programs. The demographic forces supporting Gainesville's economic growth are very strong: Hall County's long track record of substantially above-above average population growth supports the expansion of businesses that sell goods and services to households. Gainesville in an increasingly popular choice for workers commuting to jobs in the Atlanta MSA. Going forward, retiree-based economic development will provide even more impetus to economic growth. In addition, spillover effects of strong economic and population growth in Gwinnett County, North Fulton, and Forsyth County bode well for Gainesville-Hall County: one out of every eight employed-residents of Gainesville-Hall County works in Gwinnett County. Gainesville's housing market will continue to improve. Home prices dropped 32 percent from their peak in the first quarter of 2008 to their trough in the third quarter of 2012. As of the third quarter of 2018, existing home prices were 7 percent above their previous peak value. The Gainesville MSA's housing prices increased by 8 percent between the third quarter of 2017 and the third quarter of 2018. Homebuilding is also on the upswing, but still has a way to go. In 2019, single-family homebuilding will increase, but multi-unit homebuilding will decelerate. Optimism for the region's housing market reflects the 16,600 jobs added in 2011-2017, the 5,300 jobs expected in 2018-19, very strong population growth, and still affordable mortgage rates. Sustained increases in home prices will boost small business activity in Gainesville. That is because business expansion and formation require cash and the typical entrepreneur gets the funds needed to start, or expand, their business by borrowing, using their home as collateral. Home equity will be much more available to finance such loans in 2018-19. Small business will contribute more to Gainesville's growth than in recent years. Compared to both the state and the nation, the economic structure of Gainesville is very heavily tilted towards manufacturing, which makes the area much more cyclical that either the state or the national economy. At this late stage of the current business cycle, expansions by existing manufacturers and the recruitment of new manufacturers will slow. Manufacturing will continue to support job growth, but the push to growth is unlikely to be as strong as it was earlier in this business cycle. Another reason job growth will slow is that workers are increasingly scarce. Gainesville's unemployment rate is the lowest among the state's metropolitan areas. In many ways that is a great problem to have, but it is getting more difficult to fill open positions. That scarcity of workers will slow the expansion of existing firms and makes it harder to attract new companies. Fortunately, Gainesville's location allows employers to tap into Atlanta's vast labor pool. In addition, as just discussed, the area is an education hub for North Georgia. Gainesville therefore attracts and nourishes young adults who are looking to raise their levels of educational attainment, many of which will choose to work in the area after graduation.

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