Savannah Chamber

38 Although the outlook for Gainesville is sanguine, there are two policy-related area-specific worries. A trade war or a pullback from globalization could be very tough on Gainesville because of the area's dependence on international trade. Exports account for almost 7.3 percent of Gainesville-Hall County's GDP. The main exports are food products (e.g., poultry) many of which go to Canada or Mexico. The renegotiation of NAFTA therefore substantially reduced a downside risk for the area. A second concern is that the stricter U.S. immigration laws – or stricter enforcement of existing laws – will hit Gainesville much harder than the nation as a whole. That is because unauthorized immigrants account for 10.1 percent of Gainesville's population – compared to only 3.5 percent of the U.S. population. In addition, the timing of the crackdown on illegal immigration is particularly bad given the area's very low unemployment rate. Macon On an annual average basis, Macon's total employment will rise by 0.6 percent in 2019, or by 600 jobs. The 2019 gain will roughly match the 600 net new jobs expected in 2018 but will exceed the 400 jobs added in 2017. The growth of the construction, healthcare, and financial services industries will account for much of the projected job growth. In addition, many of the economic development projects announced over the last few years will continue to build out in terms of their total employment impacts on the MSA. In 2018, Stevens Aerospace announced that it will open a large- cabin aircraft operations facility at the Middle Georgia Regional Airport that will create 150 jobs – mainly in aerospace maintenance. Middle Georgia State University and Central Georgia Technical College train students in aerospace maintenance and were likely important factors behind the company's decision to invest in Macon. In 2018, Five Below announced new retail distribution center project for Monroe County that will create 130 jobs. The Nichiha Group announced an expansion of its fiber cement product manufacturing plant that will add 74 jobs. In 2017, Star Snacks announced that it would build a peanut roasting and packaging facility that will create 115 jobs. Irving Consumer Products announced that it would create over 200 jobs at a tissue manufacturing facility. In early 2016, Kumho Tire opened its first North American manufacturing plant in Macon, employing about 450 people. Guard Buildings LLC opened a modular shelter manufacturing facility, which initially should support 25 jobs. In 2015, First Quality Packaging Solutions located its new manufacturing facility in Macon. First Quality manufactures innovative plastic packaging for retail food, food service, and healthcare. The top employers in the Macon MSA are GEICO, Navicent Health Medical Center, Coliseum Health Systems, Mercer University, and Georgia Farm Bureau Federation. GEICO, the MSA's largest employer, recently expanded its operations. In 2019, GEICO should benefit from increases in insured amounts stemming from (1) consumers preferences for more expensive vehicle models and from (2) increases in residential property values. The Macon MSA includes Bibb, Crawford, Jones, Monroe, and Twiggs counties. In 2019, Macon's economy will benefit from its focus on transportation and logistics, financial activities, higher education, healthcare, and professional and business services. The area's large and stable healthcare industry is a strength. Manufacturing, professional and business services, and government account for below average shares of economic activity but will still contribute to the area's economic growth. The leading high-wage industries are offices of physicians and the federal government. Government accounts for only 14.5 percent of nonfarm earnings, which is well below the national and statewide averages of 16.6 percent and 16.5 percent, respectively. The Macon MSA's direct exposure to future efforts to restructure the federal government therefore is limited. Of course, Warner Robbins heavy dependence on federal spending creates large positive spillover effects in the Macon MSA. Fortunately, the 2019 outlook for the Robins Air Force Base is excellent. The 2019 Defense Authorization Act will add about 1,200 positions at the base, boosting Warner Robins and Macon's economy. Macon's direct dependence on exports is also limited – exports account for only 1.2 percent of the area's GDP. Thus, a retreat from globalization or a trade war would have manageable implications for the Macon MSA. Macon's role as a center for transportation and logistics will serve that area very well. Macon is located strategically at the intersection of I-75 and I-16, has two railroad lines, is home to the largest rail-switching center on the East Coast, and benefits from a good airport that is used by local residents as well as others from throughout much of South

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