Savannah Chamber

29 Albany's strengths include low business and living costs, good productivity per worker, and low employment volatility. The MSA also is a regional transportation hub. The area's weaknesses include low educational attainment of the workforce, few high-tech jobs, low per capita incomes and weak demographic trends. Population outmigration and weak household formation limit prospects for consumer industries, including homebuilding and real estate development. One economic stabilizer for Albany is that much of the area's remaining manufacturing base produces basic consumer staples, which households continue to buy whether or not the economy is expanding. Proctor and Gamble, Miller Brewing, Mars, and Tyson Foods are good examples. Coats decision to continue its manufacturing and distribution operations in Albany – in the wake of the destruction of its distribution center by a tornado in 2017 – helps to stabilize the area's manufacturing base. Indeed, after heavy job losses from 1998-2009, manufacturing employment held steady at about 4,300 jobs from 2010-2018. Manufacturing employment should increase in late 2019 or early 2020 when the new Georgia Pacific manufacturing plant begins operations. As national, state, and regional economic conditions continue to improve, Albany will capitalize on its assets, including a low cost of living and doing business, an excellent telecommunications infrastructure, good 4-lane highway access, the Marine Corps Logistic Base, a newly merged University System of Georgia institution, an excellent technical college, the new 4C Academy, and a reputation as a good place to live and raise a family. The area's economy is slowly transforming itself. Albany is moving away from traditional manufacturing and government towards private- sector service providing industries. For example, the health care industry was the main source of job growth in 2018 and will be a primary driver of job growth in 2019. The Lee County Medical Center is scheduled to open in 2020 and could support several hundred jobs. Retiree-focused businesses also will expand. The new terminal at the Southwest Georgia Regional Airport bodes well for the regional economy. As consumer spending expands, Albany will benefit from its role as a regional retail-wholesale-distribution center. Nonetheless, automation and online competition will prevent retail trade from becoming a source of job growth. Indeed, small numbers of retail jobs will probably be lost in 2019 even as retail sales expand. Albany will continue to benefit from its traditional role as a support center for agriculture. Of course, dependence on agriculture does expose the regional economy to the vicissitudes of commodity markets, shifts in federal farm policies, and trade tensions. Redevelopment along the Flint River adds to Albany's charm, and adds to the area's potential to benefit from tourism and retiree-based development. The leisure and hospitality industry should do well in 2019. The Rails to Trails project and the new airport terminal also will help the tourism industry. Albany's tourism industry is about equally dependent on business and leisure travelers. Albany's increasing role as a regional center for healthcare weighs strongly in its favor, but the MSA's sub-par population growth as well as Georgia's nonparticipation in the expansion of Medicaid limits the prospects for this industry's growth. To prosper, Albany's healthcare industry will have to pull more patients from surrounding areas. A high proportion of government jobs makes Albany vulnerable to the restructuring of government. Over 2010-2018, Albany lost about one out of every ten of its government jobs. Due to the presence of the Marine Corps Logistics Base, Albany is especially dependent on federal jobs – 8.9 percent of the Albany area's nonfarm earnings come from federal employment versus 5.4 percent for the state and 4.1 percent for the nation. The Marine Corps Logistics Base (MCLB) is the area's top employer. Because DOD spending will probably increase in 2019, the immediate prospects for the MCLB are good. President Trumps' budget are likely to favor bases with missions similar to the MCLB. In addition, pay raises for troops are expected. Future problems with the Federal Budget are looming, however, which is a long-term risk for the area's economy. Albany's dependence on government spending is not limited to federal spending. State and local government accounts for 15.5 percent of earnings versus only 11.1 percent for the state as a whole. Public restructuring at all levels of government therefore could be more problematic for Albany's long-term growth than for either the state's or the nation's long-term growth.

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