Savannah Chamber

28 The Atlanta MSA is highly specialized in transportation, logistics, warehousing, and wholesale trade, with employment concentrated these inherently cyclical industries. The continued growth in U.S. GDP in 2019 therefore bodes well for these highly cyclical industries and in turn for Atlanta, but the slower rate of GDP growth implies that this sector will grow more slowly than in recent years. Recent project announcements in the Atlanta MSA include Vanriet Material Handling Systems – a manufacturer of automated transport and sorting solutions, KL Outdoor – a manufacturing and distribution center, Loloi Inc., Instacart, and Saddle Creek Logistics. UPS also is expanding rapidly. In 2019, Atlanta will continue to develop as an inland port for transportation, distribution and warehousing products. The connectivity of Georgia's ports to the interstate system, rail, and air cargo is excellent. Among major U.S. metros, Atlanta is a relatively low-cost, low-risk place to operate a warehouse. A substantial amount of high-tech warehouse/distribution space is under construction, which will provide the capacity for additional growth of Atlanta transportation and logistics cluster. Given the federal budget situation, one major long-term plus for Atlanta is that the metro area is not very dependent on federal jobs. Only 2.9 percent of the Atlanta area's nonfarm earnings come from federal employment versus 5.4 percent for the state and 4.1 percent for the nation. The Atlanta area's only large federal employer is the CDC – about 9,200 employees. Atlanta is not the home of a major military base. Only 0.3 percent of nonfarm earnings come from military jobs versus 2.0 percent for the state and 1.2 percent for the nation. State and local government accounts for only 8.6 percent of earnings in metro Atlanta versus 11.1 percent for the state and 12.6 percent for the nation. Thus, public-sector restructuring should be less problematic for Atlanta's growth than for growth elsewhere in Georgia or the nation. Due to above average growth in employment and population, the housing recovery is stronger in the Atlanta MSA than in most markets. Existing single-family home prices peaked in the second quarter of 2007 and bottomed out in the second quarter of 2012. From peak to trough, the metro area's existing home prices declined by 27 percent, which exceeds the decline experienced by the nation. Home prices recovered relatively quickly in the Atlanta market, however. As of the third quarter of 2018, Atlanta's home prices were 21 percent above their pre-recession peak levels. In terms of new single-family home construction, Atlanta's housing recovery began in 2010 and gained traction in 2012-2018. The 2019 prospects for Atlanta's single-family homebuilding outlook are good. Albany The Albany MSA will continue to see a slower pace of economic growth than either the state or the nation. More specifically, on an annual average basis, the Albany area will see 0.2 percent job growth in 2019, which is the same as the 0.2 percent growth estimated for 2018. One factor behind the slow rate of growth in 2018 was the closing of several iconic retailers – Sears, Toys"R"Us, and Best Buy. More positively, Georgia-Pacific LLC's announcement in mid-2018 that it will build a lumber production facility in Albany was very good news for the Albany MSA. When it is complete, the state-of-the-art manufacturing plant will support 130 direct jobs. Startup is anticipated in late 2019. Proximity to raw materials coupled with Dougherty County's rail and highway infrastructure helped Albany compete for – and win – this advanced manufacturing project. Because Albany is a small MSA, the Georgia-Pacific plant will significantly bolster tthe area's economic performance. Top employers include Phoebe Putney Health Systems, the Marine Corps Logistics Base, Procter & Gamble, Albany State University, and Miller Brewing Company. The area's leading high-wage industries include the federal government and offices of physicians. The Albany MSA includes Baker, Dougherty, Lee, Terrell, and Worth counties. Compared to the state and the nation, Albany's economy is more dependent on government, retailing, and health care and less dependent on information, fi nancial activities, manufacturing, and professional & business services. Increased defense spending will benefit the area in 2019 as will higher spending on health care, but retail jobs will continue to decline. Within manufacturing, Albany is much more focused the production of nondurable goods than either the state or the nation. Over time that focus tends to work to Albany's advantage because sales of nondurable goods are less cyclical than sales of durable goods. Consequently, activity in Albany's manufacturing sector is relatively stable. Compared to the nation, Albany's economy is more dependent on domestic markets and not as dependent on export markets. Exports account for only 5.1 percent of the area's GDP and food products are the main export. Asia is the primary destination of the MSA's exports. Albany therefore does face some direct exposure to a trade war and a retreat from globalization, but compared to the nation as a whole the fallout should be manageable.

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