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17 4 In 2015, existing single-family home prices in Georgia will rise 6 percent, with less expensive homes appreciating the fastest because these are far from full price recovery. But it also reflects investors' interest in buying inexpensive homes to use as rentals. In contrast, price appreciation for luxury homes will depend mostly on the trade-up market, which is still not functioning normally. There are still a lot of negative forces for housing, several of which already were discussed. One additional negative is that the image of housing as an investment has been damaged and will not be repaired quickly. Yet another problem is that more federal regulation will keep credit tighter and more expensive. Economic Development Due to cost, logistics, and tax advantages, Georgia is very competitive with other states when it comes to landing economic development projects that will provide a tailwind to economic growth. Examples of these projects include Baxter International's new facility that will add 1,500 biotechnology jobs; GM's IT-innovation center in Roswell that will bring 1,000 high-tech jobs; Caterpillar's new facility that brings 1,400 jobs in the Athens area; and Ernst & Young's new global IT center in Alpharetta with 400 high-tech jobs. In addition, Georgia continues to attract automobile parts suppliers: Inalfa Roof Systems will add 100 new jobs to the 300 that it had already announced at its manufacturing plant in Cherokee County. Specialization in activities where Georgia has comparative advantage bodes well for sustained success of the companies that received incentives, thereby enhancing the prospect for long-term economic growth. Logistics, transportation, distribution, warehousing, IT, transactions processing, floor coverings, headquarters operations, and professional and business services are good examples of industries where Georgia competes effectively. Demographics Demographic forces are a third factor behind Georgia's improving economic performance. Due to job growth and the housing recovery, geographic mobility will increase in 2015, and this will propel net domestic and international migration to Georgia. Domestic net migration will rise to about 15,000 people in 2015 and 20,000 in 2016. Nonetheless, Georgia's higher rate of population growth will become even more dependent on net international migration of about 30,000 people in 2015. Population growth also will benefit from a slight increase in number of births. Retirees The financial crisis and the bursting of bubbles in the nation's property markets abruptly choked off the inflow of retirees to Georgia (and elsewhere). For primarily economic reasons, people stopped moving. The Selig Center estimates that 68 percent of the decrease in the nation's overall mobility rate was due to economic conditions and only 32 percent was due to continuing long-term trends. As economic conditions improve and housing markets normalize, retirees who stayed put will opt to move to places better suited to a more relaxed lifestyle. Georgia will be in a good position to attract them. Moreover, new census projections show that from 2015 to 2030, the U.S. population over 65 will grow by 53 percent compared to only 3 percent for the population 18 to 64 years. So barring a major pandemic, economic catastrophe, or a dramatic increase in traditional retirement age, prospects are excellent for retiree-based economic development. Prospects for Selected MSAs Atlanta A revival of population growth and the housing recovery will strongly underpin Atlanta's ongoing economic recovery. A high concentration of college-educated workers will continue to attract technology companies in life sciences, R&D, IT, professional and business services, and advanced manufacturing. Compared to other large metropolitan areas with strong links to global markets, the costs of living and doing business in