13
7
per barrel, but because prices are so volatile it would not be too surprising if oil were to trade outside of this
band. Also, this forecast is predicated upon a slight acceleration in the modest pace of global economic
growth, no major disruptions in the supply of crude or refined products, and bringing new energy
infrastructure on line.
In 2015, moderate growth of the global economy will allow capacity to expand enough to prevent oil supplies
from tightening. Domestically, oil production is booming in the Bakken formation in North Dakota, and much
higher output is also expected from Texas and several other states. Oil imports' percentage of GDP
therefore will decline significantly. Also, steady, high prices will gradually lead to improvements in energy
efficiency, but those are long-run rather than short-run determinants of demand.
