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14 8 by foreign central banks. We expect net exports to subtract slightly from 2025 US GDP growth. Although the Federal Reserve will be cutting policy interest rates, the lagged effects of foreign central bankers tightening of monetary policies to combat high inflation will restrain global spending by consumers and businesses. We believe global and domestic stock markets are vulnerable to corrections, which would slow global growth. Geopolitical risks abound, including a broadening of the conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East as well as the tense situation between Taiwan and China. Uncertainty about US trade policy adds considerable downside risk to the forecast for international trade. At a minimum, trade tensions will remain high and existing tariffs will increase. It is reasonable to expect the effective tariff rate on imported goods to triple from about 3 percent in 2024 to about 9 percent by the end of 2025, or early in 2026. The bottom line is that we expect protectionist trade policies to become more prevalent domestically and globally, which is bad for trade, productivity, GDP growth, and inflation. Another obstacle to faster US export growth will be past appreciation of the US dollar. We expect the US dollar to appreciate further in 2025, but the additional appreciation will be minor compared to the appreciation that has recently transpired. The increase in the dollar's trade-weighted value therefore will make it harder to export goods and easier to import goods, reducing net exports. UNITED STATES BASELINE FORECAST 2024-2025 United States 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Gross Domestic Product, Bil. of 2017$ 20,234.1 21,407.7 21,822.0 22,376.9 22,939.3 23,303.3 Percent change -2.2 5.8 1.9 2.5 2.5 1.6 Nonfarm Employment (Mil.) 142.2 146.3 152.5 156.1 157.9 158.9 Percent change -5.8 2.9 4.3 2.3 1.2 0.6 Personal Income, Bil. of $ 19,629.0 21,407.7 21,840.8 22,961.3 23,948.6 24,930.5 Percent change 6.9 9.1 2.0 5.1 4.3 4.1 Civilian Unemployment Rate (%) 8.1 5.3 3.6 3.6 4.1 4.3 CPI-U, Ann. % Chg. 1.2 4.7 8.0 4.1 3.0 3.0 Source: The Selig Center for Economic Growth, Terry College of Business, University of Georgia.