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24 18 2023. Since we expect Georgia's economy to outperform the average state's economy, net migration to Georgia will drop only slightly in 2025. One reason the drop in net migration to Georgia will be small is that unemployment rates will be on the increase in most states – including Georgia, but Georgia's unemployment rate will remain below the unemployment rates in many of the states that typically send people to Georgia. People and businesses will be looking to move to states where economic performance is comparatively good. In addition, changes due to greater acceptance of remote work will continue to favor Georgia as well as many other Sunbelt states as a place to live. Prior to the pandemic, Georgia's above average rate of population growth depended on annual net international migration of about 20,000 people. Pandemic-related travel restrictions and pandemic-related reductions in the US government's capacity to process visas reduced that number to only 730 in 2020. The number of net annual international migrants rose to 10,161 in 2021, to 27,010 in 2022, and to 30,119 in 2023. We estimate that the 2022-23 surge in net international migration dropped to between 20,000 and 25,000 in 2024 will drop to under 10,000 in 2025. In addition, Georgia's population growth should benefit from a slight increase in number of births, but the fertility rate will remain below where it stood in prior decades. Put it all together and above-average population growth will be a powerful driver of Georgia's GDP in 2025. Indeed, looking beyond the economic slowdown, labor markets are likely to be much tighter over the next couple of decades than in the decades that preceded the pandemic. Above-average population growth conveys above-average labor force growth, which will keep Georgia's potential rate of economic growth above that of US. Strong demographics will ensure that Georgia's economy continues to outperform the US economy for many years. Stricter US immigration policies are a major downside risk to Georgia's labor force and population growth, especially for 2026 and beyond. GEORGIA BASELINE FORECAST, 2024-2025 Georgia 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Gross Domestic Product, Bil of 2017$ 602.3 639.2 655.8 661.1 681.6 698.0 Percent change -3.0 6.1 2.6 0.8 3.1 2.4 Nonfarm Employment (thousands) 4,425.1 4,598.1 4,810.3 4.904.7 4,977.6 5,027.5 Percent change -4.5 3.9 4.6 2.0 1.5 1.0 Personal Income, Bil of $ 552.2 606.1 617.6 646.1 677.8 709.6 Percent change 6.9 9.8 1.9 4.6 4.9 4.7 Housing Permits, Total 55,827 67,223 77,752 63,621 67,280 70,428 Percent change 3.7 20.4 15.7 -18.2 5.8 4.7 Unemployment Rate (percent) 6.5 3.9 3.1 3.2 3.7 4.0 Source: The Selig Center for Economic Growth, Terry College of Business, The University of Georgia.