Savannah Chamber

13 1 The Georgia Outlook 2024 Jeffrey M. Humphreys Terry College of Business, University of Georgia The 2024 forecast calls for Georgia's inflation-adjusted GDP to increase by 1.1 percent, which is 0.3 percent above the 0.8 percent rate increase expected for U.S. GDP. The state's nonfarm employment will rise by 0.7 percent, which is better than the 0.3 percent increase estimated for the nation, and Georgia's unemployment rate will average 4 percent, well below the U.S. unemployment rate. Nominal personal income will grow by 4.3 percent in 2024, which is 1.6 percent above our expected 2.7 percent inflation. The economic slowdown will be the main factor behind slower personal income growth, but we anticipate a smaller contribution to income from capital gains than was the case in recent years. Several developments may help Georgia's economy do better than we predict, however. For example, consumer spending out of savings accumulated during the pandemic or current income could be stronger than we expect. Supply chain issues may resolve faster and more completely, which would boost sales of new vehicles and other manufactured goods that are in short supply. Oil and natural gas prices could be lower than we expect, and net domestic migration and foreign immigration to Georgia might be stronger. Finally, the economic push from several years of record-levels of economic development projects could be stronger than we believe. State-specific forces that will help Georgia's economy to outperform the nation's economy include: (1) the construction of many economic development projects; (2) competitive state-level economic development incentives that help refill the economic development pipeline; (3) more leverage from new vehicle sales; (4) strong performance of the state's deep water ports; (5) solid prospects for Georgia's military bases; and (8) positive demographic trends. Most sectors of Ge orgia's economy will continue to expand slowly, but the pattern of job growth will be different than it was before. Employment in construction and the financial activities industries will decline. Retail jobs will be lost due to recessionary forces, online shopping replacing in-store shopping, and the shift in consumer spending from goods to services. We expect some of the industries hit hardest by the pandemic, such as tourism, live entertainment, and air transportation, to post positive job growth. Consumer-driven industries such as healthcare and education will benefit from strong population growth. Logistics, distribution, warehousing, professional and business services, the information industry, and fintech are expected to post positive, but limited job growth. Manufacturing job growth will be due to some improvement in supply chains, changes in U.S. industrial policy that promote reshoring, and the many projects that are in Georgia's economic development pipeline. State and local governments will continue to restore some of the jobs lost to the recession, while inflation will boost state and local government revenues from sales and use taxes. Services Consumers' ongoing shift in spending priorities from goods towards services will support the expansion of many types of these businesses. We expect growth due to increased

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