Savannah Chamber

37 22 their prime working years – leave the area. It is likely that the relative shortage of high-tech jobs is a factor behind the outmigration of working-aged adults. High-tech employment accounts for only 1.6 percent of the area's total employment. The MSA's relatively low levels of educational attainment makes it very difficult to attract the types of companies that are likely to create high proportions of high-tech jobs. There are shortages of persons with Bachelor's and Associate's degrees and surpluses of persons with less than an Associate's degree. The supply and demand for persons with graduate degrees, however, is well balanced. On the plus side, each year, the area's institutions of higher education mint a new crop of college graduates. There is a tremendous opportunity and a challenge to create jobs that keep higher proportions of these graduates in Macon. Another positive is that net foreign migration to the MSA is consistently positive, and contributes over 200 persons per year to the area's population. As of the second quarter of 2020, home prices were 2.2 percent above their pre-Great Recession peak level, and were up 6.1 percent on a year-over-year basis. In terms of new construction, the upturn in single-family homebuilding began in 2014 and gained some traction in 2015-20, but activity levels are still depressed. The outlook for the Macon MSA's homebuilders is positive, but the gains will be small. Despite very low mortgage rates, and poor population trends make it very difficult for the area's housing market to strengthen appreciably. Savannah From peak-to-trough the Savannah MSA lost 14.3 percent of its jobs to the COVID-19 recession. The heaviest job losses were in the leisure & hospitality, information, state & local government, and other services industries. In contrast, the education & health services industry sector added jobs throughout the recession. The Savannah MSA's job market took a harder hit than the state's job market. In the initial three month rebound, the Savannah MSA recovered 55 percent of its job losses, which was roughly on par with the rebound posted by the state as a whole. In 2021, Savannah's economic recovery will kick into a higher gear, especially in the second half of the year assuming that an effective vaccine is widely available. The MSA's employment is forecast to increase by 3.6 percent in 2021, which more than double the 1.5 percent gain forecast for the state and four times greater than the 0.9 percent gain forecast for the nation. The large percentage gain in jobs reflects several factors: Savannah's large tourism industry will post impressive gains due to easy comparisons to a very depressed base of activity. It will help that the leisure and hospitality industry is tilted towards domestic leisure travel rather than towards either business travel or international travel. Many economic development projects announcements made over the last few years will provide a solid push to the area's growth. Recent and proposed infrastructure projects at the Port of Savannah position Savannah's economy to benefit substantially higher container traffic. Savannah's population is poised to grow strongly. There's a good chance that increases in defense spending will boost troop levels at Hunter Army Airfield. The main risks to the MSA are a delayed vaccine for COVID-19 and an escalation of the US-China trade war. Over the long-term, Savannah's multiple personality: that of a major tourist attraction, a major airbase, an aerospace manufacturing center, a modern – extraordinarily successful – deepwater port, a regional hub for health and educational services, and a retirement mecca will make up the grounds for Savannah's success. Gulfstream is the area's largest employer, followed by Memorial Health University Medical Center, Fort Stewart/Hunter Army Airfield, St. Josephs/Candler, Wal-Mart, Momentum Resources II Inc., Savannah College of Art and Design, Georgia Pacific Corp., Fred Meyer Stores, and Staff Co. Recent changes in the federal tax deductibility of corporate jet purchases – a 100 percent writeoff against earnings – bode well for Gulfstream, but COVID-19 and the trade war reduce the short-term prospects for orders of business jets. Gulfstream laid off hundreds of workers in 2020. Once the pandemic is over, Savannah will benefit from the expansion of the film industry. High-tech jobs accounts for only 1.2 percent of the MSA's jobs compared to 4.4 percent of Georgia's jobs and 5.0 percent of US jobs. The area's industrial diversity is relatively low. The leading high-wage industries include the federal government and offices of physicians. The leading mid-wage industries include local government, general medical & surgical hospitals, and the military. The leading low wage industries include restaurants, employment services, and grocery stores. The Savannah MSA includes Bryan, Chatham, and Effingham counties. In 2021, Savannah will benefit from economic development projects announced over the last several years. In 2020, Medline Industries – a manufacturer and distributor of medical supplies – announced plans to build a new distribution center in Bryan County that initially will support 150 new jobs with the capacity to support up to 600 workers as the company grows. In 2019, Plastics Express announced a major expansion of its operations in in Chatham County with two new manufacturing facilities, creating 166 jobs. In 2019, Anatolia Tile+Stone decided to locate its new distribution center in Savannah, creating 124 jobs. Preci-Dip, a manufacturer of military and aerospace connectors, announced

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