Savannah Chamber

33 18 and International Auto Processing. The area's leading high-wage industries include the federal government and offices of physicians. The area's leading mid-wage industry is local government. The area's leading low-wage industries are restaurants, traveler accommodations, and grocery stores. The Brunswick MSA includes Brantley, Glynn, and McIntosh counties. A high proportion of federal and local government jobs makes Brunswick vulnerable to the restructuring of government. This is mostly because the MSA is especially dependent on federal government jobs. The MSA is somewhat dependent on local jobs, but is not too dependent on state government jobs. Once the pandemic is over, recent major renovations and expansions at Sea Island, Jekyll Island, and Gulfstream will contribute to the area's economic performance. Prior to the pandemic, Sea Palms resort on St. Simons Island announced plans for significant renovations. Because Brunswick is a small MSA, the actions for the better, or for the worse, by one major company can determine the area's actual economic performance, however. As of the second quarter of 2020, home prices in the Brunswick MSA were 1 percent above their pre-Great Recession peak level. It is especially encouraging that the most recent year-over-year data show that home prices rose by 4.5 percent. Positive expectations for home price appreciation and overall housing situation reflect population growth, including an influx of retirees and part-time residents. Once the pandemic is over, net migration of people to the Brunswick MSA could be substantial. The major sources of people moving to Brunswick are Atlanta, Savannah, Jacksonville, Hinesville, Valdosta, and Miami. In recent years, net foreign migration has become a trivial source of new residents, which reflects a reversal of the trend that existed prior to 2017. The paucity of foreign net migration removes one factor that had been contributing significantly to the area's economic growth. In terms of new construction, the Brunswick MSA's homebuilding recovery began in 2012, but stalled from 2013-2014. Homebuilding regained traction in 2015-18, but relapsed in 2019-2020. Due to job growth, population growth, low mortgage rates, an easy comparisons to a very depressed base, homebuilding activity will increase in 2021. Another reason new home construction activity will increase is that newer homes are built to be more resilient to floods – a more important consideration in the wake of the Biggert-Waters Act. The prospects for the area's homebuilders look good for 2021 and beyond. Columbus From peak-to-trough the Columbus MSA lost 10.9 percent of its jobs to the COVID-19 recession. The heaviest job losses were in the leisure & hospitality, state government, and professional & business services industries. The nation and the state's job markets took harder hits than Augusta. In the initial three month rebound, the Columbus MSA recovered 44 percent of its job losses, which was roughly on par with the rebound posted by the nation as a whole. The 2021 economic forecast for Columbus is positive, reflecting continuing recovery from the COVID-19 recession. Nonagricultural employment will increase 1,800 jobs, or 1.6 percent. The 2021 rate of job growth – 1.6 percent – is about the same as the 1.5 percent gain expected for the state and higher than the 0.9 percent gain expected for the nation. In addition to the sustained recovery of the US and Georgia economies, several MSA-specific factors will promote the area's economic recovery (1) Fort Benning, (2) Columbus State University, and (3) a modest increase in homebuilding. It will help that the area's economy is not too dependent on exports – 4.6 percent of GDP – and therefore is not overly vulnerable to trade shocks. The cost of living is low and the quality of the workforce is improving. The age structure of the population is very favorable for growth with larger than average proportions of Generation Z, Millennials, and Generation X and lower than average proportions of Baby Boomers and Silent/Greatest generations. Due to the presence of Fort Benning, government accounts for almost 20 percent of total nonfarm employment. The area's largest employers are Fort Benning, TSYS, AFLAC, Inc., Columbus Regional Healthcare System, St. Francis Hospital Inc., Pezoid Management, Tyson Foods, Blue Cross Blue Shield of Georgia, The Medical Center (Div. of CRHC), and Synovous Financial Corp. The leading high-wage industries are the federal government, nondepository credit intermediation, insurance carriers, and offices of physicians. Leading mid-wage industries include local government, general medical & surgical hospitals, and depository credit intermediation. Leading low-wage industries include restaurants and state government. The main negatives include a paucity of net migration, subpar levels of educational attainment, and a relatively undiversified economy. The Columbus MSA includes Chattahoochee, Harris, Marion, and Muscogee counties in Georgia and Russell County in Alabama. In recent years, defense-friendly politics favored Fort Benning. There has been quite a bit of good news in terms of

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