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46 29 Government earnings account for 35.2 percent of the Valdosta MSA's non-farm earnings, which is more than double the 15.9 percent share reported for the State of Georgia. That is largely due to the presence of Moody Air Force Base, which is Valdosta's largest employer. The restructuring of the government sector therefore is a potential headwind for Valdosta. The Air Force has talked about retiring the A-10 plane, which is based at Moody Air Force Base, but a recent GAO report suggests that the Air Force has yet to find a cost-effective substitute for the various types of missions performed by the A-10. Nonetheless, the potential retirement of the A-10 must be acknowledged as a serious, potential, threat to the local economy. In addition to a high dependence on federal military spending, Valdosta is extremely dependent on spending by state and local government. State and local government earnings account for 21.0 percent of the area's non-farm earnings compared to only 10.7 percent for the state and 12.0 percent for the nation. In the Valdosta MSA, local government accounts for 14.2 percent of non-farm earnings, which is the highest reported for any of Georgia's metropolitan statistics areas. For the state as a whole, local government jobs account for only 7.6 percent of non-farm earnings. Fiscal austerity could be very tough on Valdosta and is a major downside risk for the area's economy. Valdosta is a college town and Valdosta State University therefore is a major driver of the local economy. In FY 2018, Valdosta State University's economic impact was $394 million and 4,635 jobs: 1,437 on-campus jobs and 3,198 off- campus that exist due to university-related spending. The 2018 employment impact (4,635 jobs) is 20 percent higher than in 2013 (3,851 jobs). In 2019, Valdosta State University's excellent reputation will continue to attract many students from outside the region, adding to student spending and to the supply of newly minted college graduates. In addition to generating university-related spending, Valdosta State University raises the area's educational attainment. As educational attainment rises, Valdosta should find it easier to recruit or grow new businesses and industries, especially in its relatively undeveloped technology and high-value added services industries. In the Valdosta MSA, existing single-family home prices peaked in the second quarter of 2008 and bottomed in the first quarter of 2014. The peak-to-trough decline was 16 percent, which was well below the state average. Home prices have not recovered, however. As of the third quarter of 2019, home prices were still four percent below their peak level, but home prices increased by 8.0 percent between the third quarter of 2018 and the third quarter of 2019. The failure of home prices to recover from the ravages of the Great Recession reflects weak demographics and a paucity of high- wage job growth. Depressed home prices restrain consumer spending and entrepreneurial activity, especially people's willingness to spend on home improvements. In terms of new construction, the upturn in single-family homebuilding began in 2012, gained some altitude in 2013, but lost considerable altitude in 2014. The upturn in homebuilding began again in 2015 and was sustained through 2019. The 2020 outlook for homebuilders is calls for a decline in homebuilding activity, reflecting depressed existing home prices due to limited job and population growth. Housing-related employment accounts for 8.7 percent of the area's total employment, which is below the U.S. average of 9.6 percent.