Savannah Chamber

28 11 innovation will power growth and prosperity in much the same way that manufacturing powered growth and prosperity in the 20 th century and agriculture powered growth and prosperity in the 19 th century. Prospects for Selected MSAs Atlanta Business development, an educated workforce, innovation, above-average population growth – due to domestic and international migration, and the housing recovery will strongly underpin Atlanta's economic expansion. In 2020, the pace of job growth will slow sharply. The sharp slowdown mostly reflects external factors such as the trade war, less support from the 2018 federal tax cuts, volatile financial markets, and recession fears. In addition, tighter labor markets and perennial strains on infrastructure are local factors that will moderate growth. The Atlanta MSA is operating beyond full employment, which makes it increasingly difficult for employers to find good workers. Employers therefore will depend on attracting migrants from other areas. The problem is that at this stage of the U.S. business cycle it will be difficult to lure workers to Atlanta from other areas because unemployment rates are now low in many of the places that typically send workers to Atlanta – New York, Chicago, and Austin. Meanwhile, federal restrictions on H-1B visas make it difficult to sustain the growth of Atlanta's innovation/technology industries by attracting skilled workers from abroad. The area's economy and its economic growth are very diverse, which decreases the economic risk associated with living and doing business in Atlanta. The area's leading high-wage industries include computer systems design, management of companies and enterprises, and offices of physicians. Leading mid-wage industries include general medical and surgical hospitals and building equipment contractors. The leading low-wage industries is restaurants. The MSA's politics are very business-friendly. Atlanta is a major business and professional services hub. Atlanta is a well- established transportation and logistics hub. Atlanta is an innovation hub. Atlanta is also an information hub. The early deployment of 5G – the next generation of cellular networks – will benefit Atlanta significantly. In order, the Atlanta MSA's top ten employers are Emory University/Emory Healthcare, Delta Air Lines, Walmart Stores, Home Depot, WellStar Health System, AT&T, Northside Hospital, Piedmont Healthcare, Marriott International, and Publix Supermarkets. None of the Atlanta area's top ten employers are government organizations. Atlanta is the cultural center of the Southeast. The population's level of educational attainment exceeds the national average, providing essential talent to the area's innovation ecosystem. The hospitality industry is thriving. The Atlanta MSA is dependent on two highly cyclical industries – distribution and new construction. Exports account for about 5.6 percent of the area's GDP. The MSA therefore is not overly dependent on export markets. Immigrants account for about 13.6 percent of the MSA's population. Thus, changes in U.S. immigration laws or stricter enforcement of existing immigration laws will affect the MSA's economic performance. The Atlanta MSA's main weakness is an overburdened infrastructure. Atlanta has many high-tech jobs – 5.9 percent of total employment in the Atlanta MSA versus 4.4 percent for Georgia and 4.9 percent for the U.S. In 2020, the area's high concentration of college-educated workers, business partners, cyber security, high-tech companies, innovation centers, and research universities will continue to attract high technology companies in life sciences, software development, research & development, healthcare IT, professional and business services, and advanced manufacturing. The CDC and nonprofits such as the national headquarters of the American Cancer Society and the Arthritis Foundation attract life sciences companies. New high-tech development (e.g., healthcare IT, Fintech, cyber security, software development, mobile apps, and corporate innovation centers) are growing rapidly in Atlanta. That growth will continue, but at a slower pace. The information industry is highly concentrated in the Atlanta MSA, but the number of information jobs will decline slightly in 2020. Atlanta's high-tech development depends on easy access to quality universities, especially university research centers that transfer new ideas and technologies to local businesses. For example, in the wake of the "Great Recession," the innovation district that developed around Tech Square achieved the critical mass needed to attract high-tech companies to Midtown Atlanta. The innovation ecosystem in Midtown attracts established high-tech companies, high- tech startups, innovation centers, research and development centers, service providers, as well as venture capitalists. This vibrant innovation district is booming but sustaining growth will require additional talent. The pipeline of

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