Savannah Chamber

38 21 above their peak level. It is especially encouraging that the most recent year-over-year data show that home prices rising by a very strong 10.4 percent. Positive expectations for home price appreciation and overall housing situation reflect solid population growth, including an influx of retirees and part-time residents. Net migration of people to the Brunswick MSA will be substantial. The major sources of people moving to Brunswick are Atlanta, Savannah, and Jacksonville. In addition, foreign immigration should add about 100 residents in 2020, or about 10 percent of total net migration. In terms of new construction, the Brunswick MSA's homebuilding recovery began in 2012, but stalled from 2013-2014. Homebuilding regained traction in 2015-18, but relapsed in 2019. Due to job growth, population growth, low vacancy rates, and low mortgage rates homebuilding activity will increase in 2020. Another reason new home construction activity will increase is that newer homes are built to be more resilient to floods – a more important consideration in the wake of the Biggert-Waters Act. The prospects for homebuilders look good for 2020. Columbus The 2020 economic forecast for Columbus is positive, but not outstanding. Nonagricultural employment will increase by only 200 jobs. The 2020 rate of job growth – 0.2 percent – is lower than the 0.7 percent gain predicted for the state as a whole. Several developments will sustain economic expansion in the Columbus MSA: (1) growth at Fort Benning, (2) growth of both the U.S. and Georgia economies, (3) Columbus State University, and (4) a modest upturn in homebuilding. The economy is not too dependent on exports – 3.9 percent of GDP – and therefore is not overly vulnerable to trade shocks. The cost of living is low, and the quality of the workforce is improving. The age structure of the population is very favorable for growth with larger than average proportions of Generation Z, Millennials, and Generation X generations and lower than average proportions of Baby Boomer and Slient/Greatest generations. Due to the presence of Fort Benning, government accounts for 35.5 percent of non-farm earnings compared to only 15.9 percent for the state. The area's largest employers are Fort Benning, TSYS, Columbus Regional Healthcare System AFLAC, Inc., and St. Francis Hospital Inc. The leading high-wage industries are the federal government, non- depository credit intermediation, insurance carriers, and offices of physicians. Leading mid-wage industries include local government and general medical & surgical hospitals. Leading low-wage industries include the military, restaurants, and state government. The main negatives include negative net migration, subpar levels of educational attainment, a low proportion of high-tech jobs, and a relatively undiversified economy. The Columbus MSA includes Chattahoochee, Harris, Marion, and Muscogee counties in Georgia and Russell County in Alabama. The U.S. Department of Defense reduced the Army from 490,000 to 476,000 soldiers. As a part of that reduction, Fort Benning was slated to lose the 3 rd Brigade, but kept the Infantry Battalion Task Force, which limited the net loss to 2,852 positions. Those cuts were completed in mid-2016. Beginning in 2017, there has been quite a bit of good news in terms of expanding the base's mission and staffing levels. Base activity therefore shifted from an economic headwind in 2016 into an economic tailwind in 2017. More specifically, the U.S. Army located its new Security Force Assistance Brigade at Fort Benning. The U.S. Army also located its Security Force Assistance headquarters at Fort Benning. The U.S. Army also announced that Fort Benning would receive the Military Advisor Training Academy, which will train soldiers and officers for the Security Force Assistance mission. The recent omnibus bill raises defense spending well above the caps sit in the Budget Control Act. Military pay raises were good in 2019 and good raises are expected in 2020. In 2019, ICE announced plans to build a new training complex at Fort Benning. The immediate prospects for Fort Benning therefore are very good and no cuts are on the horizon. Columbus derives much larger than average shares of economic activity from two private-sector industries: (1) financial activities, and (2) leisure and hospitality. Loan growth, financial deregulation, and tax reform favor top-line growth for firms that provide financial activities, but due to greater efficiency, jobs are likely to be lost in 2020. The 2019 merger of TSYS and Global Payments will eliminate some jobs in the combined company. The area's hospitality industry will do well in 2020, but growth will slow. The prospects are better for leisure travel than for business travel. Job and personal income growth will keep people traveling more for short trips and vacations. In addition, the list of local attractions is long and very compelling. It includes the Chattahoochee RiverWalk, the Coca-Cola Science Center, the Columbus Museum, the National Civil War Naval Museum, the National Infantry Museum and Soldier Center,

• Cover