Savannah Chamber

37 20 Baltimore MD, Austin TX, El Paso TX, Savannah, and Fayetteville NC. In addition, mortgage rates will be very affordable. Sustained increases in home prices will boost small business activity. Small businesses therefore will contribute to Augusta's growth in 2020, but less so than in 2019. Nonetheless, small business growth will be helping to broaden the base of Augusta's impressive economic expansion. Brunswick In 2020, Brunswick's employment will rise by 0.8 percent, or 400 jobs. The number of jobs created therefore will be lower than the gains estimated for 2019 – 900 jobs – and 2018 – 900 jobs. Strengths include tourism, new investment in the Port of Brunswick, and the in-migration of full-time and part-time residents. Brunswick is not very dependent on information, manufacturing, financial activities, or professional and business services industries. Accordingly, high-tech employment accounts for only 1.7 percent of the area's jobs. The Brunswick MSA's economy depends very heavily on one of the most cyclical industries – leisure and hospitality. That focus bodes well for the 2020 economic outlook but hurt during the last downturn. The economy also tilts towards retailing, another cyclical industry that is undergoing massive restructuring. Due largely to the presence of the Port of Brunswick, Brunswick's economy is exposed to international trade and is therefore quite vulnerable to trade tensions and tariffs. New investment at the port boosts the area's long-term prospects for trade-based economic growth, however. There is a significant aerospace cluster of companies in the Brunswick area: Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation, Jered LLC, Starnbaugh Aviation Inc., Scoject Inc., Quaker State Plating, R.G. Grabber Inc., Palmetto Aviation Repair LLC, and Skycraft Aviation Specialties. Recent changes in the tax deductibility of corporate jet purchases should benefit the area's aerospace industry, but the trade war hurts the industry. The Brunswick MSA's top employers, in order, are the SE Georgia Health System, Sea Island Co., Brunswick Cellulose, eBay, Wal-Mart, GSI Commerce, King & Prince Seafood Corp, Gulfstream Aerospace Corp, Rich Products, and International Auto Processing. The area's leading high-wage industries include the federal government, offices of physicians, and rail transportation. The area's leading mid-wage industry is local government. The area's leading low- wage industry is traveler accommodation. The Brunswick MSA includes Brantley, Glynn, and McIntosh counties. A high proportion of federal and local government jobs makes Brunswick vulnerable to the restructuring of government. Government accounts for 24.7 percent of the area's non-farm earnings compared to 15.9 percent for the state. This is mostly because the MSA is especially dependent on federal government jobs. Federal government jobs account for 10.2 percent of the area's non-farm earnings, which is more than twice the almost twice the 5.1 percent reported for the state as a whole. Local government jobs account for 10.5 percent of non-farm earnings compared to 7.6 percent for the state as a whole. The MSA is not overly dependent on state government jobs. Recent major renovations and expansions at Sea Island, Jekyll Island, and Gulfstream contribute to the area's improving economic performance and its good prospects for 2020 and beyond. In addition, Sea Palms resort on St. Simons Island recently announced plans for significant renovations. Incremental expansions by existing firms in leisure and hospitality, retailing, construction, and health services industries also are expected in 2020. Once trade tensions ease and the global economy firms, the Port of Brunswick should do well, benefitting the area's logistics and distribution industries. Because Brunswick is a small MSA, the actions for the better, or for the worse, by one major company can determine the area's actual economic performance, however. As was the case in many vacation and second home communities, the housing bust was especially severe in Brunswick. In addition, ill-timed changes in national flood insurance policies – the Biggert Waters Act – worsened the home price declines and muted home price recovery, especially for older homes located in flood zones. The wealth losses associated with the sharp drop in real estate prices reverberated throughout the local economy, delaying recovery for many consumer-based businesses. Single-family home prices peaked in the fourth quarter of 2007 and did not bottom until the second quarter of 2012. From peak to trough, existing single-family home prices declined by 31 percent in the Brunswick MSA, which was steeper than the declines suffered at the state and national levels. Existing home prices are recovering, but as of the third quarter of 2019, home prices in the Brunswick MSA were two percent

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