Savannah Chamber

31 14 In terms of new single-family home construction, Atlanta's housing recovery began in 2010, gained traction in 2012- 2018, but moved sideways in 2019. Atlanta's 2020 single-family homebuilding outlook is positive but not robust. Job growth, population growth, increasing rents, low mortgage rates, and a scarcity of listings of existing homes will be the primary drivers of the Atlanta MSA's homebuilding industry in 2020. Albany In 2020, the Albany MSA's economic outlook is less positive that the state's economic outlook. On an annual average basis, the Albany area is expected to add 100 jobs – a 0.2 percent increase. The 2020 job gain will be smaller than the 400 jobs added in 2019, but much better than the 300 jobs lost in 2018. One factor behind Albany's underperformance has been the closing of several iconic retailers – Fred's, Kmart, Sears, FYE, Toys'R'Us, and Best Buy. More positively, Georgia-Pacific LLC's announcement in mid-2018 that it will build a lumber production facility in Albany was very good news. When it is complete in late 2019, the state-of-the-art manufacturing plant will support 140 direct jobs. Proximity to raw materials coupled with Dougherty County's rail and highway infrastructure helped Albany compete for – and win – this advanced manufacturing project. Because Albany is a small MSA, the Georgia-Pacific plant will bolster the area's economic performance. Top employers include Phoebe Putney Health Systems, the Marine Corps Logistics Base, Procter & Gamble, Albany State University, and Miller Brewing Company. The area's leading high-wage industries include the federal government and offices of physicians. The leading mid-wage industries include general medical and surgical hospitals and general freight trucking. The leading low-wage industries include local government, restaurants, state government, and farms. The Albany MSA includes Baker, Dougherty, Lee, Terrell, and Worth counties. Compared to the state and the nation, Albany's economy is more dependent on government, retailing, health care, and agriculture. In contrast, Albany's economy is relatively less dependent on information, financial activities, manufacturing, and professional and business services. The Albany MSA has very few high-tech jobs – 1.3 percent of total employment in Albany versus 4.4 percent for Georgia and 4.9 percent for the U.S. Increased defense spending will benefit the area as will higher spending on health care, but retail jobs will continue to decline. Within manufacturing, Albany is much more focused the production of nondurable goods than either the state or the nation. Over time that focus tends to work to Albany's advantage because sales of nondurable goods are less cyclical than sales of durable goods. Consequently, activity in Albany's manufacturing sector is relatively stable. Compared to the nation, Albany's economy is more dependent on domestic markets and not as dependent on export markets. Exports account for only 5.1 percent of the area's GDP, but food products are the main export and Asia is the primary destination. Albany therefore does face direct exposure to the trade war and the recent retreat from globalization, but the fallout should be manageable. Albany's strengths include low business and living costs and low employment volatility. In addition, Albany is a regional transportation hub. The area's weaknesses include low educational attainment of the workforce, few high-tech jobs, low per capita incomes, weak demographic trends, and a high poverty rate. Population out-migration and weak household formation have hurt consumer industries, including retailing, homebuilding, and real estate development. One economic stabilizer for Albany is that much of the area's remaining manufacturing base produces basic consumer staples, which households continue to buy regardless of whether the economy is expanding or not. Proctor and Gamble, Miller Brewing, Mars, and Tyson Foods are good examples. Coats' decision to continue its manufacturing and distribution operations in Albany – in the wake of the destruction of its distribution center by a tornado in 2017 – helps to stabilize the area's manufacturing base. Manufacturing employment should increase in late 2019 or early 2020 when the new Georgia Pacific manufacturing plant begins operations. Albany's assets include a low cost of living and doing business, an excellent telecommunications infrastructure, good 4-lane highway access, the Marine Corps Logistic Base, a newly merged University System of Georgia institution, an excellent technical college, the new 4C Academy, and a reputation as a good place to live and raise a family. These assets will provide more advantage to the area's economy once the overall economic situation facing the state and the nation improve. Albany's economy is slowly transforming itself. Albany is moving away from traditional manufacturing and government towards private-sector service providing industries. For example, the healthcare industry was a source of job growth in 2018-19.

• Cover