Savannah Chamber

34 during the last downturn. The economy also tilts towards retailing, another somewhat cyclical industry. Due largely to the presence of the Port of Brunswick, Brunswick's economy is exposed to international trade and is therefore vulnerable to trade tensions and tariffs. There is a significant aerospace cluster of companies in the Brunswick area: Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation, Jered LLC, Starnbaugh Aviation Inc., Scoject Inc., Quaker State Plating, R.G. Grabber Inc., Palmetto Aviation Repair LLC, and Skycraft Aviation Specialties. Recent changes in the tax deductibility of corporate jet purchases should benefit the area's aerospace industry. The Brunswick MSA's the top employers are the SE Georgia Health System, Sea Island Co., Brunswick Cellulose, eBay, Wal-Mart, King & Prince Seafood Corp, the College of Coastal Georgia, International Auto Processing, Rich Products Corp., and the King & Prince Resort. The area's leading high-wage industries include the federal government and offices of physicians. The Brunswick MSA includes Brantley, Glynn, and McIntosh counties. A high proportion of federal and local government jobs makes Brunswick vulnerable to the restructuring of government. Government accounts for 24.8 percent of the area's nonfarm earnings compared to 16.5 percent for the state and 16.6 percent for the nation. This is mostly because the MSA is especially dependent on federal government jobs. Federal government jobs account for 10.1 percent of the area's nonfarm earnings, which is more than twice the almost twice the 5.4 percent reported for the state as a whole. Local government jobs account for 10.8 percent of nonfarm earnings compared to 7.8 percent for the state as a whole. The MSA is not overly dependent on state government jobs. Recent major renovations and expansions at Sea Island, Jekyll Island, and Gulfstream contribute to the area's improving economic performance and its good prospects for 2019 and beyond. Incremental expansions by existing firms in leisure and hospitality, retailing, construction, and health services industries also are expected in 2019. The Port of Brunswick should do well, benefitting the area's logistics and distribution industries. Because Brunswick is a small MSA, the actions for the better, or for the worse, by one major company can determine the area's actual economic performance, however. As was the case in many vacation and second home communities, the housing bust was especially severe in Brunswick. In addition, ill-timed changes in national flood insurance policies – the Biggert Waters Act – worsened the home price declines and muted home price recovery, especially for older homes located in flood zones. The wealth losses associated with the sharp drop in real estate prices reverberated throughout the local economy, delaying recovery for many consumer-based businesses. Single-family home prices peaked in the fourth quarter of 2007 and did not bottom until the second quarter of 2012. From peak to trough, existing single-family home prices declined by 31 percent in the Brunswick MSA, which was steeper than the declines suffered at the state and national levels. Existing home prices are recovering, but as of the third quarter of 2018, home prices in the Brunswick MSA were still 5 percent below their peak level. It is encouraging, however, that the most recent year-over-year data show that home prices rising by 4 percent. Existing home prices are expected to rise by about the same percentage in 2019. Very positive expectations for home price appreciation and overall housing situation reflect solid population growth, including an influx of retirees and part-time residents. Net migration of people to the Brunswick MSA will be substantial. The major sources of people moving to Brunswick are Atlanta, Savannah, and Jacksonville. Foreign immigration also is on the increase and should add about 200 residents in 2019, or about 10 percent of total net migration. In terms of new construction, the Brunswick MSA's homebuilding recovery began in 2012, but stalled from 2013-2014. Homebuilding regained traction in 2015-18. Indeed, as of mid-2018, permits to build new single-family homes were running 5 percent higher than in mid-2017. One reason new home construction will do well is that newer homes are built to be more resilient to floods – a more important consideration in the wake of the Biggert-Waters Act. The prospects for homebuilders look very good for 2019. Columbus The 2019 economic forecast for Columbus is positive, but not outstanding. Nonagricultural employment will increase by 1,000 jobs. The 2019 rate of job growth – 0.8 percent – is lower than the 1.5 percent gain predicted for the state as a whole. Seven developments will encourage economic expansion in the Columbus MSA: (1) growth at Fort Benning,

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