Savannah Chamber

30 Another problem is that the area's population and labor force have been declining for many years. In addition, compared to the Georgia average, Albany has relative fewer people within the 25 to 49 age bracket, typically the most productive years, professionally. Out migration weighs very heavily on the area's prospects for economic growth. The Albany MSA has very few high-tech jobs. On the plus side, it appears that Albany's population stabilized in 2017-18. Population stability is likely to persist through 2019, providing a firmer foundation for household-dependent businesses. Less positively, net migration has been and is likely to remain negative. The top five destinations of people leaving Albany include Atlanta, Columbus, Jacksonville, Warner Robins, and Tallahassee. Home prices are recovering much more slowly in Albany than at either the state or national levels. The slow recovery of the area's home prices reflects both outmigration and a paucity of household formation. In the Albany MSA, existing single-family home prices peaked in the first quarter of 2008, but did not bottom out until the second quarter of 2014. From peak to trough, home prices declined by 16 percent, which is much smaller than the decline experienced by the state. Home prices are recovering very slowly in the Albany market, however. As of the third quarter of 2018, Albany's home prices were still 12 percent below their peak levels and were down 1 percent on a year-over-year basis. In terms of new single-family home construction, the housing recovery began in 2011 and gained traction in 2012-2014, relapsed in 2015-17, and gained traction in 2018. Due to weak demographic trends, the prospects for Albany's homebuilders are modest for 2019. Athens The economic structure of Athens tilts towards higher education and healthcare. The local economy does not depend heavily on inherently cyclical industries such as manufacturing, construction, or transportation and logistics. The economy also is not very dependent on exports – 3.3 percent of GDP – and therefore is not overly vulnerable to trade shocks. Machinery is the area's main export. The primary export markets are the European Union, Canada, and Mexico. Due to the presence of the University of Georgia as well as less dependence on inherently cyclical economic sectors Athens' economy does not overheat during the good times and does not tank during the bad times. Athens' economy is less cyclical than both the national economy and the state's economy. Occasionally, the State of Georgia's budget gets hammered by recessions, but cuts in appropriations for higher education typically lag the business cycle as do the increases in state appropriations once the overall economic situation improves. Those lags help to even out economic activity in Athens over the course of all but the worst recessions. When times get very tough increases in tuition and fees help to offset cuts in state appropriations for higher education. When unemployment rates spike the demand for higher education often increases. In addition, regardless of the gyrations of the business cycle spending for basic healthcare continues to grow due to demographics and technological advances. The upshot of Athens' economic structure is economic stability, which greatly reduces the risks for businesses and households. Additional strengths include, close proximity to the Atlanta MSA, population growth, a highly educated workforce, and low business and living costs. Weaknesses include the lack of interstate-quality highways, a relatively narrow base of job growth, low per capita income, and a shrinking manufacturing industry. In addition, Athens has not recently landed many large economic development projects. The area's largest employers are the University of Georgia, St. Mary's Hospital, Caterpillar, Pilgrim's Pride Corp, and the Athens Regional Medical Center. The area's leading high-wage industries include offices of physicians and pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing. The Athens MSA includes Clarke, Madison, Oconee, and Oglethorpe counties. In 2019, employment in Athens will increase by 1.5 percent – about 1,500 jobs. Due to increasing revenue collections, state appropriations for higher education will increase in FY 2019, which bodes well for UGA's and in turn Athens short-term economic prospects. The outlook for health services is excellent. The acquisition of Athens Regional Medical Center (ARMC) by Piedmont improves its balance sheet thereby enhancing prospects for expansion. ARMC has five nationally ranked specialties. Recently, St. Mary's hospital was designated Georgia's large hospital of the year. Athens will benefit from its role as the regional medical service center for northeast Georgia. The establishment of the 56-acre UGA Health Science Campus in partnership with Augusta University will help Athens' healthcare industry expand its reach into rural and exurban areas where the population skews older than in the core of the MSA. The Health Science Campus will encourage further development of clinical healthcare and the biomedical industry. The campus is the former site of the U.S. Navy Supply Corps School, which moved to Rhode Island in 2011 and currently h ouses the medical partnership as well as the UGA College of Public Health.

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